← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 35% | 34% | 2.78 | fair |
| Nantes win | 35% | 36% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Damien Da Silva · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Clément Grenier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 52' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Majeed Waris · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 104.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1560.29 | 1612.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.97 | 36.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 23.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |