← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 36% | 34% | 2.71 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 35% | 37% | 2.82 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 56' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| coach days | 72.00 | 407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1466.06 | 1631.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.54 | 6.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 11.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |