← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 80% | 79% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.38 | fair |
| Amiens win | 7% | 8% | 14.57 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Amiens |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 66' | 🟥 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Marquinhos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1503.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1499.27 | 1929.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.90 | -2.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| league points | 18.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 67.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 2.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.01 |
| state index | -0.29 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |