← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 40% | 36% | 2.44 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 28% | 36% | 3.45 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 19' | 🟥 | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 62' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · Nantes |
| 64' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 88' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 99.00 | 617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1544.67 | 1619.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.41 | -13.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 71.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 20.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |