← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 61% | 66% | 1.58 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.22 | fair |
| Dijon win | 16% | 14% | 6.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Jordan Marié · Dijon |
| 41' | ⚽ | Kévin Monnet-Paquet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pierre-Yves Polomat · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 52' | 🟨 | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 55' | 🟨 | Yann M'Vila · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 64' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 82' | 🟨 | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 82' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ole Selnæs · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 89' | 🟨 | Florent Balmont · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 386.00 | 2365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1623.69 | 1467.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.10 | -3.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |