← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 56% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Caen win | 16% | 17% | 5.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Hyun-Jun Suk · Reims |
| 7' | ⚽ | Hyun-Jun Suk · Reims |
| 16' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 26' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims |
| 28' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Björn Engels · Reims |
| 63' | 🟨 | Yoël Armougom · Caen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Björn Engels · Reims |
| 88' | 🟨 | Malik Tchokounte · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| coach days | 600.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1625.11 | 1453.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.05 | 4.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.77 |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.24 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |