← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 87% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 8.91 | fair |
| Nantes win | 5% | 4% | 21.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marquinhos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1928.33 | 1546.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.76 | 13.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.79 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.51 |
| league points | 44.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.16 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.41 | — |
| state index | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.51 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |