← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 58% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.12 | value: +5% |
| Toulouse FC win | 18% | 18% | 5.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · Lille OSC |
| 38' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kouadio Dabila · Lille OSC |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Thiago Maia · Lille OSC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 386.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.77 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1582.33 | 1472.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.88 | -7.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 34.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 23.57 | — |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |