← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 48% | 48% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 25% | 25% | 3.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 2731.00 | 812.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1525.34 | 1607.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.50 | -36.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 8.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |