← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 37% | 39% | 2.65 | value: +4% |
| Toulouse FC win | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Caen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Yoël Armougom · Caen |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 27 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 200.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1444.36 | 1482.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.96 | 5.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.90 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |