← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 43% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.21 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 26% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 34' | 🟨 | Yannis Salibur · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Youcef Atal · OGC Nice |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ole Selnæs · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 53' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 58' | 🟥 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 62' | 🟨 | Yannis Salibur · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 62' | 🟥 | Yannis Salibur · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 198.00 | 380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1610.58 | 1622.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.01 | 16.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.69 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.40 | — |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |