← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 53% | 53% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
| Caen win | 20% | 22% | 4.92 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Pablo Martínez · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 22' | ⚽ | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 23' | ⚽ | Lebo Mothiba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 80' | ⚽ | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Caen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Younn Zahary · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days | 891.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1543.46 | 1439.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.43 | -11.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |