← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 47% | 46% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
| Amiens win | 22% | 22% | 4.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Étienne Didot · Guingamp |
| 56' | 🟨 | Prince Gouano · Amiens |
| 63' | ⚽ | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 70' | ⚽ | Étienne Didot · Guingamp |
| 81' | ⚽ | Steven Mendoza · Amiens |
| 84' | 🟨 | Steven Mendoza · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Regis Gurtner · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oualid El Hajjam · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 37.00 | 1468.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1451.99 | 1484.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.07 | -28.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -1.18 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |