← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 54% | 45% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.59 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 19% | 30% | 5.15 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jacques-Alaixys Romao · Reims |
| 60' | 🟨 | Björn Engels · Reims |
| 77' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Manu García · Toulouse FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Moussa Doumbia · Reims |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bafodé Diakité · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manu García · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Manu García · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| coach days | 583.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1634.38 | 1466.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.52 | -25.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.37 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |