← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 37% | 45% | 2.62 | value: +18% |
| Nantes win | 33% | 28% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · Olympique de Marseille |
| 28' | ⚽ | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 30' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gabriel Boschilia · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 65.00 | 795.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1534.85 | 1639.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.47 | -4.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |