← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 40% | 50% | 2.47 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 30% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
| 18' | 🟨 | Valentin Rosier · Dijon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Guingamp |
| 45' | 🟨 | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 59' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 71' | 🟥 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 79' | ⚽ | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 81' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 86' | ⚽ | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2348.00 | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1468.21 | 1460.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.60 | -22.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| league points | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |