← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 36% | 38% | 2.71 | fair |
| Caen win | 33% | 32% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Umut Bozok · Nimes |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes |
| 89' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Prince Oniangué · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Loïck Landre · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 187.00 | 1130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1446.94 | 1615.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.38 | 22.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.12 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.71 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |