← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 35% | 31% | 2.80 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 35% | 47% | 2.80 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 22' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Bordeaux |
| 56' | 🟨 | William Saliba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 65' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 67' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 75' | 🟨 | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ole Selnæs · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 83' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 91.00 | 369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1607.41 | 1631.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.76 | 27.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |