← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 22% | 27% | 4.44 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 36' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adrien Tameze · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ludovic Butelle · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 186.00 | 2713.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1614.74 | 1521.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.69 | -1.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.44 | — |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |