← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.57 | value: +6% |
| Dijon win | 24% | 26% | 4.13 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 5' | 🟥 | Baptiste Reynet · Toulouse FC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Nayef Aguerd · Dijon |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 68' | ⚽ | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 72' | ⚽ | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Aaron Leya Iseka · Toulouse FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Aaron Leya Iseka · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frédéric Sammaritano · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 154.00 | 2345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1468.23 | 1466.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.69 | -24.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.44 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.17 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |