← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Rainville
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 63% | 67% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.02 | fair |
| Reims win | 13% | 11% | 7.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Maxime López · Olympique de Marseille |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
| 83' | 🟨 | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 792.00 | 580.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1641.14 | 1632.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.10 | 12.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.39 | 0.80 |
| league points | 25.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |