← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 53% | 48% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
| Amiens win | 20% | 23% | 4.95 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Steven Mendoza · Amiens |
| 22' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
| 45' | ⚽ | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 62' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 76' | ⚽ | Rachid Alioui · Nimes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 83' | 🟨 | Saman Ghoddos · Amiens |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rachid Alioui · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| coach days | 1126.00 | 1461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1605.61 | 1505.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.20 | -22.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.04 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |