← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 38% | 31% | 2.57 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 32% | 40% | 3.06 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Olivier Boscagli · OGC Nice |
| 73' | 🟨 | Christophe Kerbrat · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| coach days | 30.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.00 |
| -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1457.25 | 1617.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.37 | 32.35 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.81 |
| league points | 7.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.36 |
| state index | -1.03 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |