← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 50% | 57% | 1.95 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.19 | fair |
| Caen win | 20% | 18% | 4.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Cheikh N'Doye · Angers SCO |
| 10' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 53' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 62' | ⚽ | Claudio Beauvue · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2710.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1525.07 | 1443.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.95 | -15.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |