← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 48% | 47% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.48 | value: +4% |
| Nantes win | 24% | 23% | 4.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 72' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 84' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 364.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1620.22 | 1545.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.05 | 41.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |