← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 88% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 9.38 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 4% | 3% | 22.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 146.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1941.66 | 1469.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.20 | -38.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.47 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.44 | — |
| state index | 2.23 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |