← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 44% | 47% | 2.22 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 26% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 23' | 🟨 | Anthony Limbombe · Nantes |
| 25' | 🟨 | Baptiste Santamaria · Angers SCO |
| 36' | 🟨 | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 85' | 🟨 | Majeed Waris · Nantes |
| 89' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 54.00 | 2703.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1548.32 | 1522.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.78 | 2.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |