← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 41% | 48% | 2.36 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Nantes win | 28% | 23% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 375.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1565.52 | 1546.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.43 | 38.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |