← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 73% | 69% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 20% | 5.64 | value: +11% |
| Dijon win | 9% | 11% | 10.36 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 44' | 🟨 | Laurent Ciman · Dijon |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 84' | ⚽ | Adil Rami · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 771.00 | 2324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1637.13 | 1470.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.68 | -43.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | -0.37 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |