← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 42% | 35% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.11 | fair |
| Amiens win | 27% | 34% | 3.60 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Alexis Blin · Amiens |
| 31' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 132.00 | 1440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1480.09 | 1506.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.00 | -23.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |