← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 56% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 17% | 19% | 5.67 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | 🟨 | Ismaël Aaneba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lebo Mothiba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 343.00 | 861.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1565.42 | 1519.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.60 | 29.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.01 | — |
| state index | 0.89 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |