← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 53% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.54 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 19% | 27% | 5.06 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 26' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jeff Reine-Adélaïde · Angers SCO |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 50' | 🟨 | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 71' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 73' | ⚽ (og) | Vincent Manceau · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 89' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 338.00 | 2683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1605.63 | 1516.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.64 | 0.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 9.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |