← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.34 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 16% | 18% | 6.07 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cheik Traoré · Guingamp |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 63' | ⚽ | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
| 70' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 78' | ⚽ | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 83' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 34.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1532.21 | 1482.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.89 | 20.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |