← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 39% | 35% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +8% |
| Toulouse FC win | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 21' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Corentin Jean · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Baptiste Reynet · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 118.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1492.21 | 1601.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.30 | 36.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |