← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 41% | 41% | 2.36 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 59' | 🟨 | Youcef Atal · OGC Nice |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Radonjić · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 142.00 | 750.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1585.20 | 1674.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.18 | -27.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| league points | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.08 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |