← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 47% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 41% | 3.19 | value: +30% |
| Bordeaux win | 22% | 18% | 4.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
| 33' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 42' | 🟨 | Yann Karamoh · Bordeaux |
| 47' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Bordeaux |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lukas Lerager · Bordeaux |
| 52' | 🟨 | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 538.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1662.08 | 1693.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.91 | 14.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |