← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 87% | 87% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 9% | 11.77 | value: +8% |
| Amiens win | 4% | 3% | 21.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 111.00 | 1419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1921.02 | 1527.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.63 | -19.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.69 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 27.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.01 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.88 | — |
| state index | 2.16 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |