← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 49% | 47% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 23% | 25% | 4.21 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 37' | 🟨 | Stephane M'Bia · Toulouse FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Gabriel Boschilia · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Valentin Rongier · Nantes |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Anthony Limbombe · Nantes |
| 71' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 77' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 19.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1504.67 | 1507.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.12 | 2.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |