← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 46% | 39% | 2.11 | fair |
| Dijon win | 27% | 35% | 3.57 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Enzo Loiodice · Dijon |
| 43' | ⚽ | Luiz Araújo · Lille OSC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Lille OSC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mike Maignan · Lille OSC |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| coach days | 2302.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1490.79 | 1551.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.05 | 55.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.37 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |