← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 43% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 27% | 26% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 141.00 | 841.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -1.20 |
| -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1458.37 | 1481.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.71 | 3.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |