← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 74% | 71% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.01 | fair |
| Nimes win | 10% | 14% | 9.81 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Fethi Harek · Nimes |
| 24' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 32' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pape Cheikh · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 23 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days | 1053.00 | 1083.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1737.96 | 1600.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.19 | -16.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.92 | — |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |