← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 39% | 43% | 2.51 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.15 | value: +4% |
| Nantes win | 30% | 24% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh · Bordeaux |
| 7' | ⚽ | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 41' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Nantes |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 82' | 🟨 | Samuel Kalu · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days | 32.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1616.97 | 1514.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.10 | 0.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |