← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 43% | 45% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 2654.00 | 827.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1520.23 | 1505.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.30 | 20.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |