← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 42% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Bassem Srarfi · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adrien Tameze · OGC Nice |
| 46' | 🟨 | Steven Moreira · Toulouse FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Matthieu Dossevi · Toulouse FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rémi Walter · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 96.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1507.40 | 1585.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.62 | 19.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.08 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |