← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 52% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 22% | 24% | 4.38 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Aaron Leya Iseka · Toulouse FC |
| 43' | 🟥 | Aaron Leya Iseka · Toulouse FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · Toulouse FC |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jean-Clair Todibo · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 333.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1603.00 | 1503.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.36 | 22.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| league points | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |