← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| Nimes win | 22% | 26% | 4.42 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Ruben Aguilar · Montpellier |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ambroise Oyongo · Montpellier |
| 42' | 🟨 | Herve Lybohy · Nimes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Moustapha Diallo · Nimes |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ambroise Oyongo · Montpellier |
| 78' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 517.00 | 1064.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1571.64 | 1618.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.70 | -18.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |