← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 74% | 74% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 5.89 | value: +8% |
| Nantes win | 10% | 8% | 10.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 22' | ⚽ | Houssem Aouar · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jérémy Morel · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pape Cheikh · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 62' | ⚽ | Gabriel Boschilia · Nantes |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ciprian Tătărușanu · Nantes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · Nantes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1033.00 | 485.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1753.59 | 1507.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.40 | -10.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.78 | — |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |