← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 42% | 48% | 2.32 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.13 | fair |
| Amiens win | 27% | 23% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 48' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 69' | 🟥 | Eddy Gnahoré · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 120.00 | 1398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1453.23 | 1529.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.32 | 7.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |