← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 36% | 38% | 2.72 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.96 | fair |
| Caen win | 31% | 32% | 3.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Saîf-Eddine Khaoui · Caen |
| 37' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 51' | ⚽ | Damien Le Tallec · Montpellier |
| 62' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 63' | ⚽ | Yacine Bammou · Caen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 83' | 🟥 | Vitorino Hilton · Montpellier |
| 89' | 🟨 | Fayçal Fajr · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Junior Sambia · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 117.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1451.47 | 1573.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.70 | 29.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.58 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.40 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |