← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 42% | 40% | 2.33 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 29% | 32% | 3.33 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Kévin Monnet-Paquet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 23' | ⚽ | Loïs Diony · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 63' | ⚽ | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 75' | ⚽ | Yannis Salibur · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 86.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1512.45 | 1594.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.01 | -3.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |